Locked in · 11 June 2026

Our Scorito pool

This is how we filled in the World Cup form — and how you can see what to look for yourself. No gut feeling, but probability theory.

The method

What do you look at?

01

Strength: Elo ratings

Every nation has an Elo rating (eloratings.net) summarising all internationals ever played. Spain stood at 2157 on 11 June, Curaçao at 1434. The gap determines the win probability. Hosts (USA, Mexico, Canada) get +100 home advantage.

02

Score: Dixon-Coles

Elo says who wins, not how. The Dixon-Coles model translates the win probability into expected goals per team (λ) and gives every scoreline (0–0, 2–1, …) a probability. Crucial for Scorito: we pick the most likely score within the best result column — never a score that contradicts your result pick.

03

Value: expected points (EV)

Per match: EV = 30 × P(result) + 15 × P(exact score). That's why sometimes a 'boring' 1–0 instead of a gut-feel 3–1: the chance of an exact hit counts. The group standing (25 pts/position) follows automatically from the predicted scores. Champion (250 pts) comes from 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the whole tournament.

Our champion · 250 points if it lands
🇪🇸 Spain

36.9% kampioenskans (Monte Carlo 11 juni) — verreweg de hoogste.

36.9%
The form

All 72 entries

Per match: result, score and expected Scorito points (EV). Below: the group standing that follows from our scores.

Group A EV (pt)
11 jun Mexico – South Africa 1 2–0 29.7
11 jun South Korea – Czechia 1 1–0 12.8
18 jun Mexico – South Korea 1 2–0 22.0
18 jun Czechia – South Africa 1 2–0 22.3
24 jun Czechia – Mexico 2 0–2 22.8
24 jun South Africa – South Korea 2 0–2 23.0
1 🇲🇽 Mexico 9 pt
2 🇰🇷 South Korea 6 pt
3 🇨🇿 Czechia 3 pt
4 🇿🇦 South Africa 0 pt
Group B EV (pt)
12 jun Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 2–0 25.0
13 jun Qatar – Switzerland 2 0–2 29.7
18 jun Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 2–0 25.1
18 jun Canada – Qatar 1 2–0 29.7
24 jun Switzerland – Canada 1 1–0 12.1
24 jun Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar 1 1–0 20.1
1 🇨🇭 Switzerland 9 pt
2 🇨🇦 Canada 6 pt
3 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 pt
4 🇶🇦 Qatar 0 pt
Group C EV (pt)
13 jun Brazil – Morocco 1 1–0 19.7
13 jun Haiti – Scotland 2 0–2 22.7
19 jun Scotland – Morocco 2 0–1 14.1
19 jun Brazil – Haiti 1 2–0 29.4
24 jun Scotland – Brazil 2 0–2 21.7
24 jun Morocco – Haiti 1 2–0 24.5
1 🇧🇷 Brazil 9 pt
2 🇲🇦 Morocco 6 pt
3 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 3 pt
4 🇭🇹 Haiti 0 pt
Group D EV (pt)
12 jun United States – Paraguay 2 0–1 12.3
13 jun Australia – Turkije 2 0–1 18.3
19 jun United States – Australia 1 1–0 14.3
19 jun Turkije – Paraguay 1 1–0 15.6
25 jun Turkije – United States 1 1–0 16.0
25 jun Paraguay – Australia 1 1–0 14.6
1 🇹🇷 Turkije 9 pt
2 🇵🇾 Paraguay 6 pt
3 🇺🇸 United States 3 pt
4 🇦🇺 Australia 0 pt
Group E EV (pt)
14 jun Germany – Curacao 1 2–0 29.7
14 jun Ivory Coast – Ecuador 2 0–2 23.1
20 jun Germany – Ivory Coast 1 2–0 22.9
20 jun Ecuador – Curacao 1 2–0 29.7
25 jun Ecuador – Germany 1 1–0 12.2
25 jun Curacao – Ivory Coast 2 0–2 23.8
1 🇪🇨 Ecuador 9 pt
2 🇩🇪 Germany 6 pt
3 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 3 pt
4 🇨🇼 Curacao 0 pt
Group F EV (pt)
14 jun Netherlands – Japan 1 1–0 13.9
14 jun Sweden – Tunisia 1 1–0 15.9
20 jun Netherlands – Sweden 1 2–0 22.8
20 jun Tunisia – Japan 2 0–2 24.5
25 jun Japan – Sweden 1 2–0 21.0
25 jun Tunisia – Netherlands 2 0–2 26.0
1 🇳🇱 Netherlands 9 pt
2 🇯🇵 Japan 6 pt
3 🇸🇪 Sweden 3 pt
4 🇹🇳 Tunisia 0 pt
Group G EV (pt)
15 jun Belgium – Egypt 1 2–0 21.2
15 jun Iran – New Zealand 1 2–0 21.7
21 jun Belgium – Iran 1 1–0 17.8
21 jun New Zealand – Egypt 2 0–1 18.3
26 jun Egypt – Iran 2 0–1 15.6
26 jun New Zealand – Belgium 2 0–2 26.4
1 🇧🇪 Belgium 9 pt
2 🇮🇷 Iran 6 pt
3 🇪🇬 Egypt 3 pt
4 🇳🇿 New Zealand 0 pt
Group H EV (pt)
15 jun Spain – Cape Verde 1 2–0 29.7
15 jun Saudi Arabia – Uruguay 2 0–2 25.8
21 jun Spain – Saudi Arabia 1 2–0 29.7
21 jun Uruguay – Cape Verde 1 2–0 25.8
26 jun Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia 1 1–0 12.0
26 jun Uruguay – Spain 2 0–2 24.0
1 🇪🇸 Spain 9 pt
2 🇺🇾 Uruguay 6 pt
3 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 3 pt
4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0 pt
Group I EV (pt)
16 jun France – Senegal 1 2–0 21.4
16 jun Iraq – Norway 2 0–2 25.5
22 jun France – Iraq 1 2–0 29.7
22 jun Norway – Senegal 1 1–0 14.5
26 jun Norway – France 2 0–1 19.0
26 jun Senegal – Iraq 1 2–0 23.5
1 🇫🇷 France 9 pt
2 🇳🇴 Norway 6 pt
3 🇸🇳 Senegal 3 pt
4 🇮🇶 Iraq 0 pt
Group J EV (pt)
16 jun Argentina – Algeria 1 2–0 26.7
16 jun Austria – Jordan 1 1–0 19.1
22 jun Argentina – Austria 1 2–0 24.7
22 jun Jordan – Algeria 2 0–1 16.3
27 jun Algeria – Austria 2 0–1 14.7
27 jun Jordan – Argentina 2 0–2 29.2
1 🇦🇷 Argentina 9 pt
2 🇦🇹 Austria 6 pt
3 🇩🇿 Algeria 3 pt
4 🇯🇴 Jordan 0 pt
Group K EV (pt)
17 jun Portugal – DR Congo 1 2–0 26.5
17 jun Uzbekistan – Colombia 2 0–2 24.1
23 jun Portugal – Uzbekistan 1 2–0 24.4
23 jun Colombia – DR Congo 1 2–0 26.3
27 jun Colombia – Portugal 2 0–1 12.3
27 jun DR Congo – Uzbekistan 2 0–1 14.9
1 🇵🇹 Portugal 9 pt
2 🇨🇴 Colombia 6 pt
3 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 3 pt
4 🇨🇩 DR Congo 0 pt
Group L EV (pt)
17 jun England – Croatia 1 1–0 17.3
17 jun Ghana – Panama 2 0–2 22.2
23 jun England – Ghana 1 2–0 29.7
23 jun Panama – Croatia 2 0–1 20.5
27 jun Panama – England 2 0–2 25.1
27 jun Croatia – Ghana 1 2–0 28.4
1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 9 pt
2 🇭🇷 Croatia 6 pt
3 🇵🇦 Panama 3 pt
4 🇬🇭 Ghana 0 pt
Top scorers · 6 picks · group stage

Our top scorer picks

The trick is in the scoring: in the group stage a defender's goal earns 32 points, a midfielder's 16 and a forward's only 8. So you don't look for strikers — you look for scoring 'midfielders' from high-scoring nations.

🇩🇪

Kai Havertz

Listed at Scorito as a midfielder → 16 points per goal, double a striker's. Actually plays as a forward and takes penalties. Germany scores a lot in group E (Curaçao Elo 1434).

🇩🇪

Florian Wirtz

Same leverage: midfielder label, but in reality the creative goal-getter behind the striker. High share of Germany's goals, and Germany has a 98% chance of advancing from the group.

🇩🇪

Jamal Musiala

The third German with the midfielder label. Three picks from one country looks risky, but here it is the strategy: every German goal from this trio counts double, and group E is the second-weakest of the tournament.

🇵🇹

Cristiano Ronaldo

Forward (8 pts/goal), but pure volume: penalty taker, free kicks, and Portugal faces DR Congo (Elo 1652) and Uzbekistan (1714). The most reliable goal machine of the easier groups.

🇦🇷

Lionel Messi

Argentina has the highest tournament expectation after Spain (35% final) and Messi takes the penalties and free kicks. Group J holds Algeria and Jordan (Elo 1680).

🇳🇴

Erling Haaland

Highest shot quality in the field (FIFA shooting 92 in our database). Norway faces Iraq (Elo 1607) — exactly the kind of match where Haaland scores three, even if Norway exits afterwards.

Locked before the group stage, in line with external simulations (pouletips.nl, 10,000 runs) and our own model. Knockout stage: each round you pick 4 new top scorers — the simulator then reruns with the actual qualifiers.

Disclosure

Is this made with AI?

◈

Scores & odds: statistics

All match predictions, win probabilities, EVs, group standings and the champion pick come from classic probability models — Elo ratings, the Dixon-Coles Poisson model and Monte Carlo simulation. No language model involved: every outcome is mathematically traceable.

✳

Top scorers & strategy: AI analysis

The top scorer picks ARE AI work: Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic) combined the Scorito scoring rules (midfielder leverage), external simulations (pouletips.nl, 10,000 runs) and our own model into the final advice. That is AI reasoning, not a formula output.

⟳

The software: built with AI

The entire platform was built with Claude Fable 5 via Claude Code — the AI wrote the code, the statistical model computes the odds. The system learns during the tournament through Elo updates after every result, fully rule-based.

◎

Honest about uncertainty

Football is rolling weighted dice: even the best entry won't hit 100%. So we show probabilities, not certainties — and on the World Cup page you can see live how right (or wrong) we are.