Monte Carlo · 25.000 simulations

WK 2026

48 nations, 104 matches, three host countries. The model locked in its prediction on 11 June and learns after every result through Elo updates.

Model performance

Prediction vs. reality

Locked on 11 June 2026, before the opening match. Full Scorito scoring: match points (exact 45, result 30) plus top scorer points per goal by our six picks (midfielder 16, forward 8).

33 Played
18/33 Result correct
2 Exact score
570 Match points (exact 45 · result 30)
88 Top scorer points (per goal by our picks)
658 Total Scorito points

Top scorers on target: Kai Havertz 2× (+32 pt) · Lionel Messi 3× (+24 pt) · Erling Haaland 2× (+16 pt) · Jamal Musiala 1× (+16 pt)

Learning trajectory

How the model adjusts the numbers

Elo shift = 60 × goal-difference factor × (result − expected score). The chart shows the Elo trajectory since the start; the journal every learning step.

Elo trajectory — biggest shifts
1981 1810 1638 1467 Turkije -97 United States +93 Ivory Coast +48 Ecuador -48 Ghana +47 Panama -47
Growth ranking — who is rising fastest?
# Country Played Start Now Growth Per match
1 🇺🇸 United States 2 1726 1819 +93 +47
2 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 1 1695 1743 +48 +48
3 🇬🇭 Ghana 1 1510 1557 +47 +47
4 🇲🇦 Morocco 2 1827 1866 +39 +20
5 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1 2024 2055 +31 +31
6 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 1 1578 1606 +28 +28
7 🇦🇹 Austria 1 1830 1857 +27 +27
8 🇳🇱 Netherlands 2 1948 1973 +25 +12
9 🇨🇩 DR Congo 1 1652 1674 +22 +22
10 🇦🇺 Australia 2 1777 1799 +22 +11
11 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1 1576 1598 +22 +22
12 🇫🇷 France 1 2063 2084 +21 +21
13 🇲🇽 Mexico 2 1875 1896 +21 +10
14 🇳🇿 New Zealand 1 1562 1578 +16 +16
15 🇨🇴 Colombia 1 1982 1998 +16 +16
16 🇶🇦 Qatar 2 1421 1437 +16 +8
17 🇪🇬 Egypt 1 1696 1711 +15 +15
18 🇳🇴 Norway 1 1914 1929 +15 +15
19 🇸🇪 Sweden 2 1712 1727 +15 +7
20 🇰🇷 South Korea 2 1758 1772 +14 +7
21 🇦🇷 Argentina 1 2115 2128 +13 +13
22 🇿🇦 South Africa 2 1517 1527 +10 +5
23 🇩🇪 Germany 1 1932 1939 +7 +7
24 🇯🇵 Japan 1 1906 1910 +4 +4
25 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 1595 1595 +0 +0
26 🇧🇷 Brazil 2 1991 1985 -6 -3
27 🇨🇭 Switzerland 2 1891 1885 -6 -3
28 🇨🇼 Curacao 1 1434 1427 -7 -7
29 🇨🇦 Canada 2 1788 1778 -10 -5
30 🇩🇿 Algeria 1 1772 1759 -13 -13
31 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 2 1782 1768 -14 -7
32 🇮🇶 Iraq 1 1607 1592 -15 -15
33 🇧🇪 Belgium 1 1894 1879 -15 -15
34 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 1 1714 1698 -16 -16
35 🇮🇷 Iran 1 1772 1756 -16 -16
36 🇵🇾 Paraguay 2 1834 1816 -18 -9
37 🇭🇹 Haiti 2 1548 1528 -20 -10
38 🇸🇳 Senegal 1 1860 1839 -21 -21
39 🇺🇾 Uruguay 1 1892 1870 -22 -22
40 🇵🇹 Portugal 1 1989 1967 -22 -22
41 🇯🇴 Jordan 1 1680 1653 -27 -27
42 🇪🇸 Spain 1 2157 2129 -28 -28
43 🇭🇷 Croatia 1 1912 1881 -31 -31
44 🇹🇳 Tunisia 1 1628 1585 -43 -43
45 🇨🇿 Czechia 2 1740 1696 -44 -22
46 🇵🇦 Panama 1 1730 1683 -47 -47
47 🇪🇨 Ecuador 1 1938 1890 -48 -48
48 🇹🇷 Turkije 2 1911 1814 -97 -49

Only the World Cup has per-match Elo history. For club leagues this ranking will follow once ClubElo history is loaded.

11 jun 🇲🇽 Mexico – South Africa 🇿🇦 2–0 45
expected 93% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference Mexico +6 South Africa -6 log-loss 0.13
11 jun 🇰🇷 South Korea – Czechia 🇨🇿 2–1 30
expected 53% → result 100% South Korea +28 Czechia -28 log-loss 0.96
12 jun 🇨🇦 Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦 1–1 0
expected 84% → result 50% Canada -21 Bosnia and Herzegovina +21 log-loss 1.68
12 jun 🇺🇸 United States – Paraguay 🇵🇾 4–1 0
expected 49% → result 100% · ×1.8 goal difference United States +54 Paraguay -54 log-loss 1.07
13 jun 🇶🇦 Qatar – Switzerland 🇨🇭 1–1 0
expected 6% → result 50% Qatar +26 Switzerland -26 log-loss 2.21
13 jun 🇧🇷 Brazil – Morocco 🇲🇦 1–1 0
expected 72% → result 50% Brazil -13 Morocco +13 log-loss 1.39
13 jun 🇭🇹 Haiti – Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 0–1 30
expected 21% → result 0% Haiti -12 Scotland +12 log-loss 0.38
13 jun 🇦🇺 Australia – Turkije 🇹🇷 2–0 0
expected 32% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference Australia +62 Turkije -62 log-loss 1.69
14 jun 🇳🇱 Netherlands – Japan 🇯🇵 2–2 0
expected 56% → result 50% Netherlands -4 Japan +4 log-loss 1.25
14 jun 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast – Ecuador 🇪🇨 1–0 0
expected 20% → result 100% Ivory Coast +48 Ecuador -48 log-loss 2.39
14 jun 🇸🇪 Sweden – Tunisia 🇹🇳 5–1 30
expected 62% → result 100% · ×1.9 goal difference Sweden +43 Tunisia -43 log-loss 0.73
14 jun 🇩🇪 Germany – Curacao 🇨🇼 7–1 30
expected 95% → result 100% · ×2.1 goal difference Germany +7 Curacao -7 log-loss 0.13
15 jun 🇧🇪 Belgium – Egypt 🇪🇬 1–1 0
expected 76% → result 50% Belgium -15 Egypt +15 log-loss 1.45
15 jun 🇪🇸 Spain – Cape Verde 🇨🇻 0–0 0
expected 97% → result 50% Spain -28 Cape Verde +28 log-loss 2.21
15 jun 🇮🇷 Iran – New Zealand 🇳🇿 2–2 0
expected 77% → result 50% Iran -16 New Zealand +16 log-loss 1.48
15 jun 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia – Uruguay 🇺🇾 1–1 0
expected 14% → result 50% Saudi Arabia +22 Uruguay -22 log-loss 1.75
16 jun 🇦🇹 Austria – Jordan 🇯🇴 3–1 30
expected 70% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference Austria +27 Jordan -27 log-loss 0.55
16 jun 🇫🇷 France – Senegal 🇸🇳 3–1 30
expected 76% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference France +21 Senegal -21 log-loss 0.44
16 jun 🇮🇶 Iraq – Norway 🇳🇴 1–4 30
expected 15% → result 0% · ×1.8 goal difference Iraq -15 Norway +15 log-loss 0.27
16 jun 🇦🇷 Argentina – Algeria 🇩🇿 3–0 30
expected 88% → result 100% · ×1.8 goal difference Argentina +13 Algeria -13 log-loss 0.23
17 jun 🇵🇹 Portugal – DR Congo 🇨🇩 1–1 0
expected 87% → result 50% Portugal -22 DR Congo +22 log-loss 1.81
17 jun 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England – Croatia 🇭🇷 4–2 30
expected 66% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference England +31 Croatia -31 log-loss 0.65
17 jun 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan – Colombia 🇨🇴 1–3 30
expected 18% → result 0% · ×1.5 goal difference Uzbekistan -16 Colombia +16 log-loss 0.32
17 jun 🇬🇭 Ghana – Panama 🇵🇦 1–0 0
expected 22% → result 100% Ghana +47 Panama -47 log-loss 2.22
18 jun 🇲🇽 Mexico – South Korea 🇰🇷 1–0 30
expected 75% → result 100% Mexico +15 South Korea -15 log-loss 0.41
18 jun 🇨🇿 Czechia – South Africa 🇿🇦 1–1 0
expected 76% → result 50% Czechia -16 South Africa +16 log-loss 1.50
18 jun 🇨🇭 Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦 4–1 30
expected 81% → result 100% · ×1.8 goal difference Switzerland +20 Bosnia and Herzegovina -20 log-loss 0.28
18 jun 🇨🇦 Canada – Qatar 🇶🇦 6–0 30
expected 92% → result 100% · ×2.1 goal difference Canada +10 Qatar -10 log-loss 0.13
19 jun 🇧🇷 Brazil – Haiti 🇭🇹 3–0 30
expected 93% → result 100% · ×1.8 goal difference Brazil +8 Haiti -8 log-loss 0.14
19 jun 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland – Morocco 🇲🇦 0–1 45
expected 43% → result 0% Scotland -26 Morocco +26 log-loss 0.86
19 jun 🇺🇸 United States – Australia 🇦🇺 2–0 30
expected 56% → result 100% · ×1.5 goal difference United States +40 Australia -40 log-loss 0.85
19 jun 🇹🇷 Turkije – Paraguay 🇵🇾 0–1 0
expected 60% → result 0% Turkije -36 Paraguay +36 log-loss 1.38
20 jun 🇳🇱 Netherlands – Sweden 🇸🇪 5–1 30
expected 75% → result 100% · ×1.9 goal difference Netherlands +28 Sweden -28 log-loss 0.37
Title chances

Who wins the World Cup?

25.000 simulating tournaments…
Group stage

All groups & predictions

Per match: the result + score locked on 11 June. Played matches show the actual result and the Scorito points earned.

Group A advance probability
🇲🇽 Mexico …
🇰🇷 South Korea …
🇿🇦 South Africa …
🇨🇿 Czechia …
11 Jun 21:00 Mexico – South Africa predicted 1 2–0 result 2–0 45
12 Jun 4:00 South Korea – Czechia predicted 1 1–0 result 2–1 30
19 Jun 3:00 Mexico – South Korea predicted 1 2–0 result 1–0 30
18 Jun 18:00 Czechia – South Africa predicted 1 2–0 result 1–1 0
25 Jun 3:00 Czechia – Mexico predicted 2 0–2
25 Jun 3:00 South Africa – South Korea predicted 2 0–2
Group B advance probability
🇨🇦 Canada …
🇶🇦 Qatar …
🇨🇭 Switzerland …
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina …
12 Jun 21:00 Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina predicted 1 2–0 result 1–1 0
13 Jun 21:00 Qatar – Switzerland predicted 2 0–2 result 1–1 0
18 Jun 21:00 Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina predicted 1 2–0 result 4–1 30
19 Jun 0:00 Canada – Qatar predicted 1 2–0 result 6–0 30
24 Jun 21:00 Switzerland – Canada predicted 1 1–0
24 Jun 21:00 Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar predicted 1 1–0
Group C advance probability
🇧🇷 Brazil …
🇭🇹 Haiti …
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland …
🇲🇦 Morocco …
14 Jun 0:00 Brazil – Morocco predicted 1 1–0 result 1–1 0
14 Jun 3:00 Haiti – Scotland predicted 2 0–2 result 0–1 30
20 Jun 0:00 Scotland – Morocco predicted 2 0–1 result 0–1 45
20 Jun 2:30 Brazil – Haiti predicted 1 2–0 result 3–0 30
25 Jun 0:00 Scotland – Brazil predicted 2 0–2
25 Jun 0:00 Morocco – Haiti predicted 1 2–0
Group D advance probability
🇺🇸 United States …
🇵🇾 Paraguay …
🇦🇺 Australia …
🇹🇷 Turkije …
13 Jun 3:00 United States – Paraguay predicted 2 0–1 result 4–1 0
14 Jun 6:00 Australia – Turkije predicted 2 0–1 result 2–0 0
19 Jun 21:00 United States – Australia predicted 1 1–0 result 2–0 30
20 Jun 5:00 Turkije – Paraguay predicted 1 1–0 result 0–1 0
26 Jun 4:00 Turkije – United States predicted 1 1–0
26 Jun 4:00 Paraguay – Australia predicted 1 1–0
Group E advance probability
🇩🇪 Germany …
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast …
🇪🇨 Ecuador …
🇨🇼 Curacao …
14 Jun 19:00 Germany – Curacao predicted 1 2–0 result 7–1 30
15 Jun 1:00 Ivory Coast – Ecuador predicted 2 0–2 result 1–0 0
20 Jun 22:00 Germany – Ivory Coast predicted 1 2–0
21 Jun 2:00 Ecuador – Curacao predicted 1 2–0
25 Jun 22:00 Ecuador – Germany predicted 1 1–0
25 Jun 22:00 Curacao – Ivory Coast predicted 2 0–2
Group F advance probability
🇳🇱 Netherlands …
🇯🇵 Japan …
🇹🇳 Tunisia …
🇸🇪 Sweden …
14 Jun 22:00 Netherlands – Japan predicted 1 1–0 result 2–2 0
15 Jun 4:00 Sweden – Tunisia predicted 1 1–0 result 5–1 30
20 Jun 19:00 Netherlands – Sweden predicted 1 2–0 result 5–1 30
21 Jun 6:00 Tunisia – Japan predicted 2 0–2
26 Jun 1:00 Japan – Sweden predicted 1 2–0
26 Jun 1:00 Tunisia – Netherlands predicted 2 0–2
Group G advance probability
🇧🇪 Belgium …
🇪🇬 Egypt …
🇮🇷 Iran …
🇳🇿 New Zealand …
15 Jun 21:00 Belgium – Egypt predicted 1 2–0 result 1–1 0
16 Jun 3:00 Iran – New Zealand predicted 1 2–0 result 2–2 0
21 Jun 21:00 Belgium – Iran predicted 1 1–0
22 Jun 3:00 New Zealand – Egypt predicted 2 0–1
27 Jun 5:00 Egypt – Iran predicted 2 0–1
27 Jun 5:00 New Zealand – Belgium predicted 2 0–2
Group H advance probability
🇪🇸 Spain …
🇨🇻 Cape Verde …
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia …
🇺🇾 Uruguay …
15 Jun 18:00 Spain – Cape Verde predicted 1 2–0 result 0–0 0
16 Jun 0:00 Saudi Arabia – Uruguay predicted 2 0–2 result 1–1 0
21 Jun 18:00 Spain – Saudi Arabia predicted 1 2–0
22 Jun 0:00 Uruguay – Cape Verde predicted 1 2–0
27 Jun 2:00 Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia predicted 1 1–0
27 Jun 2:00 Uruguay – Spain predicted 2 0–2
Group I advance probability
🇫🇷 France …
🇸🇳 Senegal …
🇮🇶 Iraq …
🇳🇴 Norway …
16 Jun 21:00 France – Senegal predicted 1 2–0 result 3–1 30
17 Jun 0:00 Iraq – Norway predicted 2 0–2 result 1–4 30
22 Jun 23:00 France – Iraq predicted 1 2–0
23 Jun 2:00 Norway – Senegal predicted 1 1–0
26 Jun 21:00 Norway – France predicted 2 0–1
26 Jun 21:00 Senegal – Iraq predicted 1 2–0
Group J advance probability
🇦🇷 Argentina …
🇩🇿 Algeria …
🇦🇹 Austria …
🇯🇴 Jordan …
17 Jun 3:00 Argentina – Algeria predicted 1 2–0 result 3–0 30
17 Jun 6:00 Austria – Jordan predicted 1 1–0 result 3–1 30
22 Jun 19:00 Argentina – Austria predicted 1 2–0
23 Jun 5:00 Jordan – Algeria predicted 2 0–1
28 Jun 4:00 Algeria – Austria predicted 2 0–1
28 Jun 4:00 Jordan – Argentina predicted 2 0–2
Group K advance probability
🇵🇹 Portugal …
🇨🇩 DR Congo …
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan …
🇨🇴 Colombia …
17 Jun 19:00 Portugal – DR Congo predicted 1 2–0 result 1–1 0
18 Jun 4:00 Uzbekistan – Colombia predicted 2 0–2 result 1–3 30
23 Jun 19:00 Portugal – Uzbekistan predicted 1 2–0
24 Jun 4:00 Colombia – DR Congo predicted 1 2–0
28 Jun 1:30 Colombia – Portugal predicted 2 0–1
28 Jun 1:30 DR Congo – Uzbekistan predicted 2 0–1
Group L advance probability
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England …
🇭🇷 Croatia …
🇬🇭 Ghana …
🇵🇦 Panama …
17 Jun 22:00 England – Croatia predicted 1 1–0 result 4–2 30
18 Jun 1:00 Ghana – Panama predicted 2 0–2 result 1–0 0
23 Jun 22:00 England – Ghana predicted 1 2–0
24 Jun 1:00 Panama – Croatia predicted 2 0–1
27 Jun 23:00 Panama – England predicted 2 0–2
27 Jun 23:00 Croatia – Ghana predicted 1 2–0