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WK 2026
Monte Carlo simulatie
Het hele WK 2026 25.000 keer doorgerekend op actuele Elo-ratings. Per land de kans om elke ronde te halen — van groepsfase tot wereldkampioen. Open model, volledig narekenbaar.
| Land | Laatste 16 | Kwart | Halve | Finale | Kampioen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 93% | 74% | 56% | 40% | 28% |
| Spain | 93% | 71% | 52% | 36% | 25% |
| France | 86% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% |
| England | 85% | 57% | 35% | 19% | 9% |
| Colombia | 73% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% |
| Mexico | 79% | 45% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| Brazil | 74% | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| Netherlands | 71% | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| Portugal | 66% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% |
| Germany | 70% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| Japan | 59% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| Norway | 52% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| United States | 54% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| Switzerland | 59% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 0% |
| Croatia | 48% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 0% |
| Canada | 56% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% |
| Belgium | 53% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% |
| Ecuador | 47% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% |
| Morocco | 44% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 0% |
| Uruguay | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% |
| Senegal | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Austria | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Australia | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Paraguay | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Turkije | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| South Korea | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Egypt | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Algeria | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Scotland | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Sweden | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Jordan | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| DR Congo | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| New Zealand | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| South Africa | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Iraq | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Curacao | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ghana | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Iran | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Panama | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Czechia | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Haiti | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cape Verde | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Hoe de simulatie werkt
Elke wedstrijd krijgt een kansverdeling uit een Elo-model met een Dixon-Coles doelpuntmodel. Het hele toernooi wordt 25.000 keer uitgespeeld; de percentages zijn hoe vaak een land elke ronde haalt. Na echte uitslagen schuiven de Elo's mee, dus de kansen bewegen met het toernooi. Lees hoe het model werkt of pak de open data.
Laatst bijgewerkt: 23-06-2026.