{
  "source": "FootballOracle",
  "url": "https://footballoracle.nl",
  "method": "25000 Monte Carlo-runs op actuele Elo-ratings, doelpunten via Dixon-Coles",
  "dataset": "WK 2026 — Monte Carlo toernooisimulatie (Elo + Dixon-Coles)",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 — bron: FootballOracle (https://footballoracle.nl)",
  "teams": [
    {
      "win_probability": 0.2641,
      "team": "Spain",
      "final_probability": 0.3763,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9989,
      "last_16_probability": 0.9285,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.7183,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.5313
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.2475,
      "team": "Argentina",
      "final_probability": 0.3584,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9966,
      "last_16_probability": 0.9159,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.709,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.5173
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.1507,
      "team": "France",
      "final_probability": 0.2683,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9915,
      "last_16_probability": 0.8666,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.6306,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.4306
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0989,
      "team": "England",
      "final_probability": 0.193,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9953,
      "last_16_probability": 0.8523,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.5677,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.3432
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0432,
      "team": "Colombia",
      "final_probability": 0.1146,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9708,
      "last_16_probability": 0.7346,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.4421,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.2396
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0372,
      "team": "Mexico",
      "final_probability": 0.099,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9924,
      "last_16_probability": 0.7942,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.446,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.2207
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0322,
      "team": "Brazil",
      "final_probability": 0.0912,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9848,
      "last_16_probability": 0.7439,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.4206,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.2116
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0263,
      "team": "Netherlands",
      "final_probability": 0.0804,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.977,
      "last_16_probability": 0.7122,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.4002,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1948
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0244,
      "team": "Portugal",
      "final_probability": 0.078,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9563,
      "last_16_probability": 0.6632,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.3753,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1852
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0189,
      "team": "Germany",
      "final_probability": 0.0623,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9875,
      "last_16_probability": 0.6985,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.3545,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1596
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.011,
      "team": "Norway",
      "final_probability": 0.0445,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9091,
      "last_16_probability": 0.5209,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2696,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1215
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0109,
      "team": "Japan",
      "final_probability": 0.0422,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9516,
      "last_16_probability": 0.589,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2917,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1217
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0088,
      "team": "United States",
      "final_probability": 0.0364,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.8796,
      "last_16_probability": 0.5371,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2546,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.1002
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0043,
      "team": "Croatia",
      "final_probability": 0.0217,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9296,
      "last_16_probability": 0.4752,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2038,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.076
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0041,
      "team": "Switzerland",
      "final_probability": 0.0221,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9828,
      "last_16_probability": 0.579,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2311,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0775
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0038,
      "team": "Canada",
      "final_probability": 0.0204,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9815,
      "last_16_probability": 0.5607,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.2162,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0706
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0029,
      "team": "Ecuador",
      "final_probability": 0.0145,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9481,
      "last_16_probability": 0.4759,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.1832,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0575
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0027,
      "team": "Morocco",
      "final_probability": 0.0148,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9132,
      "last_16_probability": 0.4407,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.1706,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0567
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0027,
      "team": "Belgium",
      "final_probability": 0.0144,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.9544,
      "last_16_probability": 0.5267,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.195,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0604
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0016,
      "team": "Uruguay",
      "final_probability": 0.0126,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.905,
      "last_16_probability": 0.4019,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.15,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0472
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0013,
      "team": "Austria",
      "final_probability": 0.0106,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.8102,
      "last_16_probability": 0.3456,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.1334,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0432
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0006,
      "team": "Senegal",
      "final_probability": 0.0061,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.7436,
      "last_16_probability": 0.267,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0919,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0266
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0005,
      "team": "Paraguay",
      "final_probability": 0.0038,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.6462,
      "last_16_probability": 0.2341,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0709,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0177
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0004,
      "team": "Turkije",
      "final_probability": 0.0036,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.639,
      "last_16_probability": 0.2285,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0692,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0174
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0002,
      "team": "South Korea",
      "final_probability": 0.0019,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.841,
      "last_16_probability": 0.2469,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0628,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0128
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0002,
      "team": "Iran",
      "final_probability": 0.002,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.829,
      "last_16_probability": 0.2472,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.06,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0111
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0002,
      "team": "Scotland",
      "final_probability": 0.0014,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.7454,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1929,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0474,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0088
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0002,
      "team": "Australia",
      "final_probability": 0.0025,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.5944,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1958,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0561,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0136
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0001,
      "team": "Algeria",
      "final_probability": 0.0007,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.5592,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1275,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0302,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0062
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Sweden",
      "final_probability": 0.0004,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.5971,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1129,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.023,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0028
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Jordan",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.2359,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0263,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0031,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "DR Congo",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.3024,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0357,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0049,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0006
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Uzbekistan",
      "final_probability": 0.0002,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.3809,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0555,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0092,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0011
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Tunisia",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.1471,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0072,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0006,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Bosnia and Herzegovina",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.5353,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0406,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0034,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "New Zealand",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.193,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0102,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0006,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "South Africa",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.1668,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0068,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0002,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Iraq",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.0866,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0057,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0005,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Curacao",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.0597,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0012,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Ivory Coast",
      "final_probability": 0.0006,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.7552,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1563,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.03,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0049
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Qatar",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.1162,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0016,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0001,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Ghana",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.1581,
      "last_16_probability": 0.008,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0004,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Egypt",
      "final_probability": 0.0008,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.7777,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1936,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0393,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0062
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Saudi Arabia",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.2543,
      "last_16_probability": 0.017,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0014,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Panama",
      "final_probability": 0.0002,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.5141,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0704,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0096,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.001
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Czechia",
      "final_probability": 0.0001,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.666,
      "last_16_probability": 0.1132,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0188,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0021
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Haiti",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.096,
      "last_16_probability": 0.0043,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0001,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0
    },
    {
      "win_probability": 0.0,
      "team": "Cape Verde",
      "final_probability": 0.0,
      "group_advance_probability": 0.3436,
      "last_16_probability": 0.031,
      "quarter_final_probability": 0.0031,
      "semi_final_probability": 0.0001
    }
  ]
}